Back to 639.F Overview
FRA · Valuation Lab
639.F
Spotify Technology S.A.
Last$429.00
Market cap88.2B
EV/EBITDA33.9x
Intrinsic value
$76.43
MoS -461.3% · Overvalued
Assuming 4.0% FCF margin and 8.2% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)9.9B
Terminal share44%
Expected IV$80.95
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 44% of EV
PV of stage FCFs5.5B
PV of terminal value4.4B
Enterprise value9.9B
Net cash / (debt)5.8B
Equity value15.7B
Intrinsic value / share$76.43
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 19B | 758.7M | 677M | 89.2% |
| Y2 | 20.5B | 820.9M | 653.7M | 79.6% |
| Y3 | 22.2B | 888.2M | 631.2M | 71.1% |
| Y4 | 24B | 961M | 609.4M | 63.4% |
| Y5 | 26B | 1B | 588.4M | 56.6% |
| Y6 | 27.1B | 1.1B | 546.6M | 50.5% |
| Y7 | 28.2B | 1.1B | 507.8M | 45.1% |
| Y8 | 29.3B | 1.2B | 471.7M | 40.2% |
| Y9 | 30.5B | 1.2B | 438.2M | 35.9% |
| Y10 | 31.8B | 1.3B | 407.1M | 32.0% |
| Terminal | — | — | 4.4B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.