Back to AA Overview
NYQ · Valuation Lab
AA
Alcoa Corporation
Last$47.69
Market cap12.6B
EV/EBITDA5.9x
Intrinsic value
$198.78
MoS +76.0% · Undervalued
Assuming 7.1% FCF margin and 31.4% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)53.3B
Terminal share61%
Expected IV$211.91
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 61% of EV
PV of stage FCFs20.8B
PV of terminal value32.5B
Enterprise value53.3B
Net cash / (debt)-873M
Equity value52.5B
Intrinsic value / share$198.78
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 17.9B | 1.3B | 1.1B | 90.0% |
| Y2 | 23.5B | 1.7B | 1.4B | 81.0% |
| Y3 | 30.9B | 2.2B | 1.6B | 72.9% |
| Y4 | 40.6B | 2.9B | 1.9B | 65.6% |
| Y5 | 53.3B | 3.8B | 2.2B | 59.0% |
| Y6 | 61.7B | 4.4B | 2.3B | 53.1% |
| Y7 | 71.3B | 5.1B | 2.4B | 47.8% |
| Y8 | 82.5B | 5.9B | 2.5B | 43.0% |
| Y9 | 95.5B | 6.8B | 2.6B | 38.7% |
| Y10 | 110.5B | 7.8B | 2.7B | 34.8% |
| Terminal | — | — | 32.5B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.