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NMS · Valuation Lab
AMAT
Applied Materials, Inc.
Last$534.24
Market cap424.2B
EV/EBITDA44.3x
Intrinsic value
$64.87
MoS -723.5% · Overvalued
Assuming 10.5% FCF margin and 11.4% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)50.5B
Terminal share46%
Expected IV$67.90
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 46% of EV
PV of stage FCFs27.3B
PV of terminal value23.2B
Enterprise value50.5B
Net cash / (debt)973M
Equity value51.5B
Intrinsic value / share$64.87
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 32.3B | 3.4B | 3B | 89.2% |
| Y2 | 36B | 3.8B | 3B | 79.5% |
| Y3 | 40.1B | 4.2B | 3B | 70.9% |
| Y4 | 44.7B | 4.7B | 3B | 63.2% |
| Y5 | 49.8B | 5.2B | 2.9B | 56.3% |
| Y6 | 52.6B | 5.5B | 2.8B | 50.2% |
| Y7 | 55.6B | 5.8B | 2.6B | 44.8% |
| Y8 | 58.8B | 6.2B | 2.5B | 39.9% |
| Y9 | 62.2B | 6.5B | 2.3B | 35.6% |
| Y10 | 65.7B | 6.9B | 2.2B | 31.7% |
| Terminal | — | — | 23.2B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.