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NMS · Valuation Lab
AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.
Last$272.65
Market cap2.9T
EV/EBITDA18.9x
Intrinsic value
$1.13
MoS -23955.1% · Overvalued
Assuming 1.0% FCF margin and 11.7% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)140.9B
Terminal share51%
Expected IV$10.94
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 51% of EV
PV of stage FCFs69B
PV of terminal value71.9B
Enterprise value140.9B
Net cash / (debt)-128.6B
Equity value12.2B
Intrinsic value / share$1.13
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 800.8B | 8B | 7.2B | 90.2% |
| Y2 | 894.5B | 8.9B | 7.3B | 81.3% |
| Y3 | 999.2B | 10B | 7.3B | 73.3% |
| Y4 | 1.1T | 11.2B | 7.4B | 66.1% |
| Y5 | 1.2T | 12.5B | 7.4B | 59.6% |
| Y6 | 1.3T | 13.2B | 7.1B | 53.7% |
| Y7 | 1.4T | 14B | 6.8B | 48.4% |
| Y8 | 1.5T | 14.8B | 6.5B | 43.7% |
| Y9 | 1.6T | 15.7B | 6.2B | 39.4% |
| Y10 | 1.7T | 16.6B | 5.9B | 35.5% |
| Terminal | — | — | 71.9B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.