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NYQ · Valuation Lab
CIEN
Ciena Corporation
Last$408.83
Market cap57.9B
EV/EBITDA74.1x
Intrinsic value
$449.58
MoS +9.1% · Fairly Valued
Assuming 12.6% FCF margin and 39.5% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)64B
Terminal share66%
Expected IV$470.44
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 66% of EV
PV of stage FCFs21.8B
PV of terminal value42.3B
Enterprise value64B
Net cash / (debt)-377.7M
Equity value63.6B
Intrinsic value / share$449.58
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 7.8B | 978.9M | 885.1M | 90.4% |
| Y2 | 10.8B | 1.4B | 1.1B | 81.8% |
| Y3 | 15.1B | 1.9B | 1.4B | 73.9% |
| Y4 | 21.1B | 2.7B | 1.8B | 66.8% |
| Y5 | 29.4B | 3.7B | 2.2B | 60.4% |
| Y6 | 35.2B | 4.4B | 2.4B | 54.6% |
| Y7 | 42.2B | 5.3B | 2.6B | 49.4% |
| Y8 | 50.6B | 6.4B | 2.8B | 44.7% |
| Y9 | 60.6B | 7.6B | 3.1B | 40.4% |
| Y10 | 72.6B | 9.1B | 3.3B | 36.5% |
| Terminal | — | — | 42.3B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.