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NYQ · Valuation Lab
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Last$34.50
Market cap43.7B
EV/EBITDA21.3x
Intrinsic value
$18.46
MoS -86.8% · Overvalued
Assuming 9.0% FCF margin and 9.3% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)28.1B
Terminal share61%
Expected IV$20.09
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 61% of EV
PV of stage FCFs11B
PV of terminal value17.1B
Enterprise value28.1B
Net cash / (debt)-4.7B
Equity value23.4B
Intrinsic value / share$18.46
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 13.6B | 1.2B | 1.1B | 92.3% |
| Y2 | 14.8B | 1.3B | 1.1B | 85.1% |
| Y3 | 16.2B | 1.5B | 1.1B | 78.6% |
| Y4 | 17.7B | 1.6B | 1.2B | 72.5% |
| Y5 | 19.4B | 1.7B | 1.2B | 66.9% |
| Y6 | 20.3B | 1.8B | 1.1B | 61.7% |
| Y7 | 21.2B | 1.9B | 1.1B | 56.9% |
| Y8 | 22.2B | 2B | 1.1B | 52.5% |
| Y9 | 23.3B | 2.1B | 1B | 48.5% |
| Y10 | 24.4B | 2.2B | 981.4M | 44.7% |
| Terminal | — | — | 17.1B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.