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NYQ · Valuation Lab
CVNA
Carvana Co.
Last$69.48
Market cap103.4B
EV/EBITDA21.4x
Intrinsic value
$45.53
MoS -52.6% · Overvalued
Assuming 1.7% FCF margin and 52.4% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)35.3B
Terminal share55%
Expected IV$60.98
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 55% of EV
PV of stage FCFs16B
PV of terminal value19.3B
Enterprise value35.3B
Net cash / (debt)-2.6B
Equity value32.7B
Intrinsic value / share$45.53
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 38.2B | 649.2M | 559.7M | 86.2% |
| Y2 | 58.2B | 989.4M | 735.3M | 74.3% |
| Y3 | 88.7B | 1.5B | 966M | 64.1% |
| Y4 | 135.2B | 2.3B | 1.3B | 55.2% |
| Y5 | 206B | 3.5B | 1.7B | 47.6% |
| Y6 | 260B | 4.4B | 1.8B | 41.0% |
| Y7 | 328.1B | 5.6B | 2B | 35.4% |
| Y8 | 414B | 7B | 2.1B | 30.5% |
| Y9 | 522.5B | 8.9B | 2.3B | 26.3% |
| Y10 | 659.4B | 11.2B | 2.5B | 22.7% |
| Terminal | — | — | 19.3B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.