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NMS · Valuation Lab
SIRI
Sirius XM Holdings Inc.
Last$30.70
Market cap10.3B
EV/EBITDA7.8x
Intrinsic value
$49.61
MoS +38.1% · Undervalued
Assuming 13.8% FCF margin and 1.0% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)26.2B
Terminal share66%
Expected IV$55.71
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 66% of EV
PV of stage FCFs9B
PV of terminal value17.2B
Enterprise value26.2B
Net cash / (debt)-9.5B
Equity value16.7B
Intrinsic value / share$49.61
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 8.7B | 1.2B | 1.1B | 93.7% |
| Y2 | 8.8B | 1.2B | 1.1B | 87.7% |
| Y3 | 8.9B | 1.2B | 1B | 82.2% |
| Y4 | 9B | 1.2B | 951M | 77.0% |
| Y5 | 9B | 1.2B | 899.7M | 72.1% |
| Y6 | 9.2B | 1.3B | 859.6M | 67.5% |
| Y7 | 9.4B | 1.3B | 821.3M | 63.3% |
| Y8 | 9.6B | 1.3B | 784.6M | 59.3% |
| Y9 | 9.8B | 1.4B | 749.7M | 55.5% |
| Y10 | 10B | 1.4B | 716.2M | 52.0% |
| Terminal | — | — | 17.2B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.