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NYQ · Valuation Lab
UNP
Union Pacific Corporation
Last$295.54
Market cap175.6B
EV/EBITDA15.7x
Intrinsic value
$181.32
MoS -63.0% · Overvalued
Assuming 18.6% FCF margin and 11.5% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)136.8B
Terminal share63%
Expected IV$193.20
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 63% of EV
PV of stage FCFs51.3B
PV of terminal value85.5B
Enterprise value136.8B
Net cash / (debt)-29.1B
Equity value107.7B
Intrinsic value / share$181.32
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 28.3B | 5.3B | 4.9B | 92.3% |
| Y2 | 31.6B | 5.9B | 5B | 85.2% |
| Y3 | 35.2B | 6.6B | 5.2B | 78.7% |
| Y4 | 39.3B | 7.3B | 5.3B | 72.6% |
| Y5 | 43.8B | 8.1B | 5.5B | 67.1% |
| Y6 | 46.3B | 8.6B | 5.3B | 61.9% |
| Y7 | 49B | 9.1B | 5.2B | 57.2% |
| Y8 | 51.9B | 9.6B | 5.1B | 52.8% |
| Y9 | 54.9B | 10.2B | 5B | 48.7% |
| Y10 | 58.1B | 10.8B | 4.9B | 45.0% |
| Terminal | — | — | 85.5B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.