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NMS · Valuation Lab
AMGN
Amgen Inc.
Last$407.83
Market cap220.1B
EV/EBITDA14.8x
Intrinsic value
$392.16
MoS -4.0% · Fairly Valued
Assuming 20.0% FCF margin and 5.8% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)256.9B
Terminal share72%
Expected IV$385.45
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 72% of EV
PV of stage FCFs70.8B
PV of terminal value186.2B
Enterprise value256.9B
Net cash / (debt)-45.3B
Equity value211.7B
Intrinsic value / share$392.16
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 39.4B | 7.9B | 7.4B | 94.3% |
| Y2 | 41.7B | 8.3B | 7.4B | 89.0% |
| Y3 | 44.1B | 8.8B | 7.4B | 84.0% |
| Y4 | 46.6B | 9.3B | 7.4B | 79.2% |
| Y5 | 49.3B | 9.9B | 7.4B | 74.7% |
| Y6 | 50.8B | 10.2B | 7.2B | 70.5% |
| Y7 | 52.2B | 10.4B | 6.9B | 66.5% |
| Y8 | 53.8B | 10.8B | 6.7B | 62.7% |
| Y9 | 55.3B | 11.1B | 6.5B | 59.2% |
| Y10 | 56.9B | 11.4B | 6.4B | 55.8% |
| Terminal | — | — | 186.2B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.