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MEX · Valuation Lab
AMZN.MX
Amazon.com, Inc.
Last$4685.13
Market cap50.5T
EV/EBITDA316.5x
Intrinsic value
$8.37
MoS -55905.8% · Overvalued
Assuming 1.0% FCF margin and 19.6% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)218.9B
Terminal share54%
Expected IV$22.53
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 54% of EV
PV of stage FCFs101.1B
PV of terminal value117.8B
Enterprise value218.9B
Net cash / (debt)-128.6B
Equity value90.2B
Intrinsic value / share$8.37
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 927.7B | 9.3B | 8.3B | 89.7% |
| Y2 | 1.1T | 11.1B | 8.9B | 80.5% |
| Y3 | 1.3T | 13.3B | 9.6B | 72.3% |
| Y4 | 1.6T | 15.9B | 10.3B | 64.9% |
| Y5 | 1.9T | 19B | 11B | 58.2% |
| Y6 | 2.1T | 20.8B | 10.9B | 52.2% |
| Y7 | 2.3T | 22.9B | 10.7B | 46.9% |
| Y8 | 2.5T | 25.1B | 10.6B | 42.1% |
| Y9 | 2.8T | 27.6B | 10.4B | 37.8% |
| Y10 | 3T | 30.3B | 10.3B | 33.9% |
| Terminal | — | — | 117.8B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.