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NMS · Valuation Lab
CME
CME Group Inc.
Last$264.78
Market cap95.2B
EV/EBITDA20.4x
Intrinsic value
$210.76
MoS -25.6% · Overvalued
Assuming 43.1% FCF margin and 0.8% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)77.4B
Terminal share71%
Expected IV$206.32
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 71% of EV
PV of stage FCFs22.7B
PV of terminal value54.7B
Enterprise value77.4B
Net cash / (debt)-1.6B
Equity value75.8B
Intrinsic value / share$210.76
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 6.8B | 2.9B | 2.8B | 94.3% |
| Y2 | 6.9B | 3B | 2.6B | 89.0% |
| Y3 | 6.9B | 3B | 2.5B | 84.0% |
| Y4 | 7B | 3B | 2.4B | 79.2% |
| Y5 | 7B | 3B | 2.3B | 74.7% |
| Y6 | 7.2B | 3.1B | 2.2B | 70.5% |
| Y7 | 7.3B | 3.2B | 2.1B | 66.5% |
| Y8 | 7.5B | 3.2B | 2B | 62.7% |
| Y9 | 7.6B | 3.3B | 1.9B | 59.2% |
| Y10 | 7.8B | 3.3B | 1.9B | 55.8% |
| Terminal | — | — | 54.7B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.