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NMS · Valuation Lab
COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation
Last$941.99
Market cap417.8B
EV/EBITDA30.6x
Intrinsic value
$810.29
MoS -16.3% · Fairly Valued
Assuming 2.4% FCF margin and 21.5% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)358.5B
Terminal share67%
Expected IV$997.08
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 67% of EV
PV of stage FCFs116.8B
PV of terminal value241.6B
Enterprise value358.5B
Net cash / (debt)898M
Equity value359.3B
Intrinsic value / share$810.29
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 356.7B | 8.6B | 7.9B | 92.3% |
| Y2 | 433.4B | 10.4B | 8.9B | 85.1% |
| Y3 | 526.6B | 12.6B | 9.9B | 78.5% |
| Y4 | 639.8B | 15.4B | 11.1B | 72.4% |
| Y5 | 777.4B | 18.7B | 12.5B | 66.8% |
| Y6 | 861.3B | 20.7B | 12.7B | 61.6% |
| Y7 | 954.3B | 22.9B | 13B | 56.9% |
| Y8 | 1.1T | 25.4B | 13.3B | 52.5% |
| Y9 | 1.2T | 28.1B | 13.6B | 48.4% |
| Y10 | 1.3T | 31.2B | 13.9B | 44.6% |
| Terminal | — | — | 241.6B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.