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NMS · Valuation Lab
CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc.
Last$121.50
Market cap478.9B
EV/EBITDA27.8x
Intrinsic value
$59.18
MoS -105.3% · Overvalued
Assuming 15.3% FCF margin and 12.0% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)249.6B
Terminal share60%
Expected IV$62.46
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 60% of EV
PV of stage FCFs99.9B
PV of terminal value149.7B
Enterprise value249.6B
Net cash / (debt)-16.4B
Equity value233.2B
Intrinsic value / share$59.18
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 68B | 10.4B | 9.6B | 91.8% |
| Y2 | 76.2B | 11.7B | 9.8B | 84.3% |
| Y3 | 85.3B | 13.1B | 10.1B | 77.4% |
| Y4 | 95.6B | 14.6B | 10.4B | 71.1% |
| Y5 | 107.1B | 16.4B | 10.7B | 65.3% |
| Y6 | 113.5B | 17.4B | 10.4B | 60.0% |
| Y7 | 120.3B | 18.4B | 10.1B | 55.1% |
| Y8 | 127.5B | 19.5B | 9.9B | 50.6% |
| Y9 | 135.2B | 20.7B | 9.6B | 46.4% |
| Y10 | 143.3B | 21.9B | 9.3B | 42.6% |
| Terminal | — | — | 149.7B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.