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NMS · Valuation Lab
CSX
CSX Corporation
Last$51.12
Market cap94.7B
EV/EBITDA16.5x
Intrinsic value
$14.32
MoS -257.0% · Overvalued
Assuming 13.5% FCF margin and 10.1% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)44.6B
Terminal share57%
Expected IV$15.59
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 57% of EV
PV of stage FCFs19.1B
PV of terminal value25.5B
Enterprise value44.6B
Net cash / (debt)-18.1B
Equity value26.5B
Intrinsic value / share$14.32
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 16B | 2.2B | 2B | 91.5% |
| Y2 | 17.6B | 2.4B | 2B | 83.8% |
| Y3 | 19.4B | 2.6B | 2B | 76.7% |
| Y4 | 21.3B | 2.9B | 2B | 70.2% |
| Y5 | 23.5B | 3.2B | 2B | 64.3% |
| Y6 | 24.7B | 3.3B | 2B | 58.8% |
| Y7 | 25.9B | 3.5B | 1.9B | 53.8% |
| Y8 | 27.3B | 3.7B | 1.8B | 49.3% |
| Y9 | 28.6B | 3.9B | 1.7B | 45.1% |
| Y10 | 30.1B | 4.1B | 1.7B | 41.3% |
| Terminal | — | — | 25.5B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.