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NMS · Valuation Lab
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc.
Last$362.43
Market cap4.4T
EV/EBITDA25.8x
Intrinsic value
$191.89
MoS -88.9% · Overvalued
Assuming 5.1% FCF margin and 24.2% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)1T
Terminal share62%
Expected IV$207.24
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 62% of EV
PV of stage FCFs385.7B
PV of terminal value618.5B
Enterprise value1T
Net cash / (debt)121.7B
Equity value1.1T
Intrinsic value / share$191.89
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 553.8B | 28.2B | 25.7B | 90.9% |
| Y2 | 687.8B | 35.1B | 29B | 82.6% |
| Y3 | 854.2B | 43.6B | 32.7B | 75.0% |
| Y4 | 1.1T | 54.1B | 36.9B | 68.2% |
| Y5 | 1.3T | 67.2B | 41.6B | 61.9% |
| Y6 | 1.5T | 75.3B | 42.4B | 56.3% |
| Y7 | 1.7T | 84.4B | 43.2B | 51.1% |
| Y8 | 1.9T | 94.7B | 44B | 46.4% |
| Y9 | 2.1T | 106.1B | 44.8B | 42.2% |
| Y10 | 2.3T | 119B | 45.6B | 38.3% |
| Terminal | — | — | 618.5B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.