Back to HCA Overview
NYQ · Valuation Lab
HCA
HCA Healthcare, Inc.
Last$409.64
Market cap88.7B
EV/EBITDA9.1x
Intrinsic value
$238.53
MoS -71.7% · Overvalued
Assuming 4.8% FCF margin and 8.7% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)102.1B
Terminal share64%
Expected IV$306.60
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 64% of EV
PV of stage FCFs37B
PV of terminal value65B
Enterprise value102.1B
Net cash / (debt)-50.4B
Equity value51.6B
Intrinsic value / share$238.53
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 84.8B | 4.1B | 3.8B | 92.8% |
| Y2 | 92.2B | 4.4B | 3.8B | 86.1% |
| Y3 | 100.2B | 4.8B | 3.8B | 79.9% |
| Y4 | 108.9B | 5.2B | 3.9B | 74.2% |
| Y5 | 118.4B | 5.7B | 3.9B | 68.8% |
| Y6 | 123.6B | 5.9B | 3.8B | 63.9% |
| Y7 | 129B | 6.2B | 3.7B | 59.3% |
| Y8 | 134.7B | 6.5B | 3.6B | 55.0% |
| Y9 | 140.6B | 6.8B | 3.4B | 51.0% |
| Y10 | 146.8B | 7B | 3.3B | 47.4% |
| Terminal | — | — | 65B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.