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NMS · Valuation Lab
LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
Last$6.70
Market cap2.6B
EV/EBITDA-2.4x
Intrinsic value
$36.28
MoS +81.5% · Undervalued
Assuming 15.0% FCF margin and 20.2% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)16.6B
Terminal share78%
Expected IV$36.68
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 78% of EV
PV of stage FCFs3.7B
PV of terminal value12.9B
Enterprise value16.6B
Net cash / (debt)-2.5B
Equity value14.2B
Intrinsic value / share$36.28
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 1.7B | 252.6M | 237.9M | 94.2% |
| Y2 | 2B | 303.7M | 269.2M | 88.6% |
| Y3 | 2.4B | 365M | 304.7M | 83.5% |
| Y4 | 2.9B | 438.7M | 344.8M | 78.6% |
| Y5 | 3.5B | 527.4M | 390.2M | 74.0% |
| Y6 | 3.9B | 580.6M | 404.5M | 69.7% |
| Y7 | 4.3B | 639.3M | 419.3M | 65.6% |
| Y8 | 4.7B | 703.8M | 434.7M | 61.8% |
| Y9 | 5.2B | 774.9M | 450.6M | 58.1% |
| Y10 | 5.7B | 853.2M | 467.1M | 54.7% |
| Terminal | — | — | 12.9B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.