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MEX · Valuation Lab
LITE.MX
Lumentum Holdings Inc.
Last$14780.00
Market cap1.1T
EV/EBITDA2083.1x
Intrinsic value
$17.79
MoS -82961.2% · Overvalued
Assuming 3.8% FCF margin and 10.0% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)1.5B
Terminal share47%
Expected IV$19.76
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 47% of EV
PV of stage FCFs815.3M
PV of terminal value710.5M
Enterprise value1.5B
Net cash / (debt)-141.4M
Equity value1.4B
Intrinsic value / share$17.79
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 2.7B | 104M | 93.1M | 89.5% |
| Y2 | 3B | 114.4M | 91.6M | 80.1% |
| Y3 | 3.3B | 125.9M | 90.2M | 71.7% |
| Y4 | 3.6B | 138.4M | 88.8M | 64.1% |
| Y5 | 4B | 152.3M | 87.4M | 57.4% |
| Y6 | 4.2B | 159.9M | 82.1M | 51.4% |
| Y7 | 4.4B | 167.9M | 77.2M | 46.0% |
| Y8 | 4.6B | 176.3M | 72.5M | 41.1% |
| Y9 | 4.9B | 185.1M | 68.2M | 36.8% |
| Y10 | 5.1B | 194.4M | 64.1M | 33.0% |
| Terminal | — | — | 710.5M | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.