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NYQ · Valuation Lab
LPX
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation
Last$77.36
Market cap5.4B
EV/EBITDA16.9x
Intrinsic value
$32.47
MoS -138.2% · Overvalued
Assuming 15.0% FCF margin and -10.0% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)2.5B
Terminal share37%
Expected IV$36.61
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 37% of EV
PV of stage FCFs1.6B
PV of terminal value929.1M
Enterprise value2.5B
Net cash / (debt)-214M
Equity value2.3B
Intrinsic value / share$32.47
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 2.3B | 345.3M | 309.3M | 89.6% |
| Y2 | 2.1B | 310.8M | 249.3M | 80.2% |
| Y3 | 1.9B | 279.7M | 200.9M | 71.8% |
| Y4 | 1.7B | 251.7M | 161.9M | 64.3% |
| Y5 | 1.5B | 226.6M | 130.5M | 57.6% |
| Y6 | 1.5B | 231.1M | 119.2M | 51.6% |
| Y7 | 1.6B | 235.7M | 108.9M | 46.2% |
| Y8 | 1.6B | 240.4M | 99.5M | 41.4% |
| Y9 | 1.6B | 245.2M | 90.9M | 37.1% |
| Y10 | 1.7B | 250.2M | 83M | 33.2% |
| Terminal | — | — | 929.1M | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.