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NMS · Valuation Lab
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
Last$487.46
Market cap3.6T
EV/EBITDA18.9x
Intrinsic value
$66.74
MoS -630.4% · Overvalued
Assuming 4.9% FCF margin and 17.7% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)547.7B
Terminal share61%
Expected IV$73.89
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 61% of EV
PV of stage FCFs216.1B
PV of terminal value331.6B
Enterprise value547.7B
Net cash / (debt)-52.2B
Equity value495.6B
Intrinsic value / share$66.74
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 390.6B | 19.1B | 17.5B | 91.3% |
| Y2 | 459.7B | 22.5B | 18.8B | 83.4% |
| Y3 | 541.1B | 26.5B | 20.2B | 76.1% |
| Y4 | 636.8B | 31.2B | 21.7B | 69.5% |
| Y5 | 749.6B | 36.7B | 23.3B | 63.5% |
| Y6 | 816.3B | 40B | 23.2B | 58.0% |
| Y7 | 888.9B | 43.6B | 23.1B | 52.9% |
| Y8 | 968B | 47.4B | 22.9B | 48.3% |
| Y9 | 1.1T | 51.7B | 22.8B | 44.1% |
| Y10 | 1.1T | 56.3B | 22.7B | 40.3% |
| Terminal | — | — | 331.6B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.