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NMS · Valuation Lab
NFLX
Netflix, Inc.
Last$74.20
Market cap309B
EV/EBITDA21.5x
Intrinsic value
$104.10
MoS +28.7% · Undervalued
Assuming 45.0% FCF margin and 13.4% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)441B
Terminal share50%
Expected IV$106.98
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 50% of EV
PV of stage FCFs219.7B
PV of terminal value221.3B
Enterprise value441B
Net cash / (debt)-7.5B
Equity value433.5B
Intrinsic value / share$104.10
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 54.9B | 24.7B | 22.2B | 89.8% |
| Y2 | 62.2B | 28B | 22.6B | 80.6% |
| Y3 | 70.5B | 31.7B | 23B | 72.4% |
| Y4 | 80B | 36B | 23.4B | 65.0% |
| Y5 | 90.7B | 40.8B | 23.8B | 58.3% |
| Y6 | 96.8B | 43.6B | 22.8B | 52.4% |
| Y7 | 103.3B | 46.5B | 21.8B | 47.0% |
| Y8 | 110.2B | 49.6B | 20.9B | 42.2% |
| Y9 | 117.6B | 52.9B | 20B | 37.9% |
| Y10 | 125.4B | 56.5B | 19.2B | 34.0% |
| Terminal | — | — | 221.3B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.