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NMS · Valuation Lab
NTRA
Natera, Inc.
Last$274.62
Market cap39.3B
EV/EBITDA-143.8x
Intrinsic value
$77.07
MoS -256.3% · Overvalued
Assuming 5.5% FCF margin and 38.8% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)10.2B
Terminal share62%
Expected IV$82.38
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 62% of EV
PV of stage FCFs3.9B
PV of terminal value6.3B
Enterprise value10.2B
Net cash / (debt)847.9M
Equity value11B
Intrinsic value / share$77.07
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 3.5B | 190.9M | 170.9M | 89.5% |
| Y2 | 4.8B | 265M | 212.3M | 80.1% |
| Y3 | 6.7B | 367.8M | 263.8M | 71.7% |
| Y4 | 9.3B | 510.5M | 327.7M | 64.2% |
| Y5 | 12.9B | 708.6M | 407.2M | 57.5% |
| Y6 | 15.4B | 846.1M | 435.1M | 51.4% |
| Y7 | 18.4B | 1B | 465.1M | 46.0% |
| Y8 | 21.9B | 1.2B | 497M | 41.2% |
| Y9 | 26.2B | 1.4B | 531.2M | 36.9% |
| Y10 | 31.3B | 1.7B | 567.7M | 33.0% |
| Terminal | — | — | 6.3B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.