Back to PGR Overview
NYQ · Valuation Lab
PGR
The Progressive Corporation
Last$212.76
Market cap123.7B
EV/EBITDA8.4x
Intrinsic value
$882.72
MoS +75.9% · Undervalued
Assuming 15.0% FCF margin and 7.3% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)519.6B
Terminal share73%
Expected IV$874.23
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 73% of EV
PV of stage FCFs138.8B
PV of terminal value380.8B
Enterprise value519.6B
Net cash / (debt)-6.4B
Equity value513.2B
Intrinsic value / share$882.72
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 97.7B | 14.6B | 13.8B | 94.3% |
| Y2 | 104.8B | 15.7B | 14B | 89.0% |
| Y3 | 112.4B | 16.9B | 14.2B | 84.0% |
| Y4 | 120.7B | 18.1B | 14.3B | 79.2% |
| Y5 | 129.5B | 19.4B | 14.5B | 74.7% |
| Y6 | 134.2B | 20.1B | 14.2B | 70.5% |
| Y7 | 139.2B | 20.9B | 13.9B | 66.5% |
| Y8 | 144.4B | 21.7B | 13.6B | 62.7% |
| Y9 | 149.7B | 22.5B | 13.3B | 59.2% |
| Y10 | 155.2B | 23.3B | 13B | 55.8% |
| Terminal | — | — | 380.8B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.