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NYQ · Valuation Lab
SHAK
Shake Shack Inc.
Last$74.35
Market cap3.2B
EV/EBITDA19.2x
Intrinsic value
$116.78
MoS +36.3% · Undervalued
Assuming 15.0% FCF margin and 14.3% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)5.3B
Terminal share54%
Expected IV$122.62
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 54% of EV
PV of stage FCFs2.4B
PV of terminal value2.9B
Enterprise value5.3B
Net cash / (debt)-623.8M
Equity value4.7B
Intrinsic value / share$116.78
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 1.7B | 255.7M | 231.3M | 90.5% |
| Y2 | 1.9B | 292.2M | 239.1M | 81.8% |
| Y3 | 2.2B | 334M | 247.3M | 74.0% |
| Y4 | 2.5B | 381.8M | 255.7M | 67.0% |
| Y5 | 2.9B | 436.4M | 264.4M | 60.6% |
| Y6 | 3.1B | 467.8M | 256.4M | 54.8% |
| Y7 | 3.3B | 501.5M | 248.7M | 49.6% |
| Y8 | 3.6B | 537.6M | 241.1M | 44.9% |
| Y9 | 3.8B | 576.3M | 233.9M | 40.6% |
| Y10 | 4.1B | 617.8M | 226.8M | 36.7% |
| Terminal | — | — | 2.9B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.