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NMS · Valuation Lab
SHOP
Shopify Inc.
Last$144.24
Market cap187.2B
EV/EBITDA68.1x
Intrinsic value
$41.05
MoS -251.4% · Overvalued
Assuming 10.2% FCF margin and 34.3% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)44.5B
Terminal share47%
Expected IV$42.50
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 47% of EV
PV of stage FCFs23.5B
PV of terminal value21B
Enterprise value44.5B
Net cash / (debt)5.6B
Equity value50.1B
Intrinsic value / share$41.05
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 16.6B | 1.7B | 1.5B | 86.2% |
| Y2 | 22.3B | 2.3B | 1.7B | 74.3% |
| Y3 | 30B | 3.1B | 2B | 64.1% |
| Y4 | 40.2B | 4.1B | 2.3B | 55.2% |
| Y5 | 54B | 5.5B | 2.6B | 47.6% |
| Y6 | 63.3B | 6.5B | 2.7B | 41.0% |
| Y7 | 74.2B | 7.6B | 2.7B | 35.4% |
| Y8 | 87B | 8.9B | 2.7B | 30.5% |
| Y9 | 101.9B | 10.4B | 2.7B | 26.3% |
| Y10 | 119.5B | 12.2B | 2.8B | 22.7% |
| Terminal | — | — | 21B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.