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NMS · Valuation Lab
SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
Last$108.27
Market cap1.4T
EV/EBITDA171.6x
Intrinsic value
$10.82
MoS -900.2% · Overvalued
Assuming 15.0% FCF margin and 15.4% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)88.9B
Terminal share60%
Expected IV$11.41
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 60% of EV
PV of stage FCFs35.3B
PV of terminal value53.6B
Enterprise value88.9B
Net cash / (debt)-6.9B
Equity value82B
Intrinsic value / share$10.82
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 22.3B | 3.3B | 3.1B | 91.5% |
| Y2 | 25.7B | 3.9B | 3.2B | 83.8% |
| Y3 | 29.7B | 4.4B | 3.4B | 76.6% |
| Y4 | 34.2B | 5.1B | 3.6B | 70.1% |
| Y5 | 39.5B | 5.9B | 3.8B | 64.2% |
| Y6 | 42.5B | 6.4B | 3.7B | 58.7% |
| Y7 | 45.8B | 6.9B | 3.7B | 53.8% |
| Y8 | 49.3B | 7.4B | 3.6B | 49.2% |
| Y9 | 53.1B | 8B | 3.6B | 45.0% |
| Y10 | 57.2B | 8.6B | 3.5B | 41.2% |
| Terminal | — | — | 53.6B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.