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NMS · Valuation Lab
STX
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC
Last$837.66
Market cap189.9B
EV/EBITDA42.6x
Intrinsic value
$714.02
MoS -17.3% · Fairly Valued
Assuming 16.3% FCF margin and 48.5% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)163.7B
Terminal share57%
Expected IV$736.27
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 57% of EV
PV of stage FCFs70.1B
PV of terminal value93.6B
Enterprise value163.7B
Net cash / (debt)-1.9B
Equity value161.8B
Intrinsic value / share$714.02
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 18.1B | 3B | 2.6B | 87.3% |
| Y2 | 26.9B | 4.4B | 3.3B | 76.2% |
| Y3 | 39.9B | 6.5B | 4.3B | 66.6% |
| Y4 | 59.3B | 9.7B | 5.6B | 58.1% |
| Y5 | 88.1B | 14.4B | 7.3B | 50.8% |
| Y6 | 109.5B | 17.8B | 7.9B | 44.3% |
| Y7 | 136.1B | 22.2B | 8.6B | 38.7% |
| Y8 | 169.1B | 27.6B | 9.3B | 33.8% |
| Y9 | 210.2B | 34.3B | 10.1B | 29.5% |
| Y10 | 261.3B | 42.6B | 11B | 25.8% |
| Terminal | — | — | 93.6B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.