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NYQ · Valuation Lab
STZ
Constellation Brands, Inc.
Last$130.64
Market cap22.3B
EV/EBITDA9.6x
Intrinsic value
$222.47
MoS +41.3% · Undervalued
Assuming 24.4% FCF margin and -3.3% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)48.4B
Terminal share70%
Expected IV$223.38
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 70% of EV
PV of stage FCFs14.7B
PV of terminal value33.7B
Enterprise value48.4B
Net cash / (debt)-10.4B
Equity value38B
Intrinsic value / share$222.47
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 8.8B | 2.1B | 2B | 94.3% |
| Y2 | 8.5B | 2.1B | 1.8B | 89.0% |
| Y3 | 8.2B | 2B | 1.7B | 84.0% |
| Y4 | 7.9B | 1.9B | 1.5B | 79.2% |
| Y5 | 7.7B | 1.9B | 1.4B | 74.7% |
| Y6 | 7.8B | 1.9B | 1.3B | 70.5% |
| Y7 | 8B | 1.9B | 1.3B | 66.5% |
| Y8 | 8.1B | 2B | 1.2B | 62.7% |
| Y9 | 8.3B | 2B | 1.2B | 59.2% |
| Y10 | 8.5B | 2.1B | 1.2B | 55.8% |
| Terminal | — | — | 33.7B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.