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NMS · Valuation Lab
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
Last$321.55
Market cap1.3T
EV/EBITDA115.8x
Intrinsic value
$45.00
MoS -614.5% · Overvalued
Assuming 4.7% FCF margin and 25.5% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)150.3B
Terminal share51%
Expected IV$48.02
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 51% of EV
PV of stage FCFs73.8B
PV of terminal value76.5B
Enterprise value150.3B
Net cash / (debt)27.4B
Equity value177.7B
Intrinsic value / share$45.00
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 130B | 6.1B | 5.4B | 88.3% |
| Y2 | 163.2B | 7.7B | 6B | 78.0% |
| Y3 | 204.8B | 9.6B | 6.6B | 68.9% |
| Y4 | 257B | 12.1B | 7.4B | 60.9% |
| Y5 | 322.6B | 15.2B | 8.1B | 53.8% |
| Y6 | 363.9B | 17.1B | 8.1B | 47.5% |
| Y7 | 410.5B | 19.3B | 8.1B | 41.9% |
| Y8 | 463B | 21.8B | 8.1B | 37.0% |
| Y9 | 522.3B | 24.5B | 8B | 32.7% |
| Y10 | 589.1B | 27.7B | 8B | 28.9% |
| Terminal | — | — | 76.5B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.