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NGM · Valuation Lab
URGN
UroGen Pharma Ltd.
Last$46.43
Market cap2.3B
EV/EBITDA-18.0x
Intrinsic value
$6.05
MoS -667.6% · Overvalued
Assuming 15.0% FCF margin and 10.0% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)351.5M
Terminal share48%
Expected IV$6.34
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 48% of EV
PV of stage FCFs184.1M
PV of terminal value167.4M
Enterprise value351.5M
Net cash / (debt)-56.8M
Equity value294.7M
Intrinsic value / share$6.05
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 154.5M | 23.2M | 20.8M | 89.7% |
| Y2 | 170M | 25.5M | 20.5M | 80.5% |
| Y3 | 187M | 28M | 20.3M | 72.2% |
| Y4 | 205.7M | 30.9M | 20M | 64.8% |
| Y5 | 226.3M | 33.9M | 19.7M | 58.1% |
| Y6 | 237.6M | 35.6M | 18.6M | 52.2% |
| Y7 | 249.5M | 37.4M | 17.5M | 46.8% |
| Y8 | 261.9M | 39.3M | 16.5M | 42.0% |
| Y9 | 275M | 41.3M | 15.5M | 37.7% |
| Y10 | 288.8M | 43.3M | 14.6M | 33.8% |
| Terminal | — | — | 167.4M | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.