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NYQ · Valuation Lab
VST
Vistra Corp.
Last$140.58
Market cap47.4B
EV/EBITDA10.3x
Intrinsic value
$1162.03
MoS +87.9% · Undervalued
Assuming 15.0% FCF margin and 43.4% Y1–5 growth.
Upside to price
EV (DCF)411.7B
Terminal share72%
Expected IV$1219.53
Probability weights
Projected free cash flows
Stage FCF path with present values · terminal 72% of EV
PV of stage FCFs115B
PV of terminal value296.7B
Enterprise value411.7B
Net cash / (debt)-19.9B
Equity value391.8B
Intrinsic value / share$1162.03
| Year | Revenue | FCF | PV | DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 27.9B | 4.2B | 3.8B | 91.5% |
| Y2 | 40B | 6B | 5B | 83.8% |
| Y3 | 57.3B | 8.6B | 6.6B | 76.7% |
| Y4 | 82.2B | 12.3B | 8.7B | 70.2% |
| Y5 | 117.9B | 17.7B | 11.4B | 64.3% |
| Y6 | 143.5B | 21.5B | 12.7B | 58.8% |
| Y7 | 174.6B | 26.2B | 14.1B | 53.9% |
| Y8 | 212.5B | 31.9B | 15.7B | 49.3% |
| Y9 | 258.7B | 38.8B | 17.5B | 45.1% |
| Y10 | 314.8B | 47.2B | 19.5B | 41.3% |
| Terminal | — | — | 296.7B | — |
Educational DCF model only — not financial advice. Terminal value and assumptions dominate results; verify filings and run your own diligence.